Showing posts with label #Unemployment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #Unemployment. Show all posts

Thursday, March 28, 2024

Poverty and Unemployment in India

Introduction

India, with its vast population and diverse socio-economic landscape, has been grappling with the issue of poverty for decades. Despite making significant strides in economic growth and development, a large section of its population still lives below the poverty line. Unemployment has emerged as a key driver of poverty, particularly in the unorganized sector, where a significant portion of the population is employed. The following lines delves into the linkages between unemployment and poverty in India, analyzes the income levels of unorganized sector workers, and explores the implications for poverty eradication efforts.

Unemployment and Poverty Nexus

Unemployment is a critical factor contributing to the persistence of poverty in India. Lack of job opportunities and underemployment are pervasive issues that hinder individuals from escaping the cycle of poverty. The unorganized sector, which comprises a significant segment of India's workforce, often faces higher levels of unemployment. The lack of formal contracts, social security, and limited access to labor protections make this sector vulnerable to economic shocks and fluctuations, leading to higher unemployment rates.

To understand the magnitude of the problem, we can examine the income levels of unorganized sector workers. The Indian government established the E-Shram Portal in response to the distressing scenes of millions of people migrating from cities to rural areas during the COVID-19 pandemic. As of last year, approximately 27.28 crore workers had registered on the portal, with 94% of them reporting earnings below ₹10,000 per month. The Prime Minister's statement that 30 crore people are registered on the platform, with 90% earning less than ₹10,000 per month, further highlights the dire income situation in this sector.

Comparing Income Levels and Poverty Line

Existing poverty line estimates, such as those proposed by the Rangarajan Committee in 2013 and the Local Committee Report in 2005, provide an approximation of the income required to meet basic needs. However, the most recent poverty line data is from the World Bank, which increased the benchmark to $2.15 per person per day (PPP) from $1.9 last year. For a family of five members, this translates to ₹26,500 per month.

In stark contrast, the registered workers on the E-Shram Portal indicate that their earnings are much lower than the poverty line. Even if we account for the purchasing power parity (PPP) adjustment and convert the poverty line to normal nominal dollars, the monthly requirement still stands at ₹9,500. This implies that a significant proportion of unorganized sector families are either on or below the poverty line.

Inequality and the Path Forward

Addressing poverty requires tackling various forms of inequality. In this context, three dimensions of inequality must be considered: income inequality, regional disparity, and social inequality. Income inequality, characterized by a vast gap between the rich and the poor, exacerbates poverty by limiting access to resources and opportunities.

Regional disparities also contribute to the persistence of poverty in India. Development gaps between urban and rural areas and uneven economic growth across states widen the poverty divide. Focusing on equitable economic development, improving access to education, healthcare, and infrastructure, and encouraging investments in lagging regions can help bridge these disparities.

Furthermore, social inequality, based on gender, caste, or ethnic backgrounds, acts as a significant barrier to poverty eradication. Discrimination and marginalization restrict the opportunities available to disadvantaged groups and perpetuate their vulnerability. Promoting inclusivity and social justice through targeted policies and affirmative action can help ensure that all sections of society benefit from economic growth.


Unemployment, particularly in the unorganized sector, is a key driver of poverty in India. The income levels of workers in this sector are significantly lower than the poverty line, indicating the urgent need for measures to improve their economic conditions. Addressing the three dimensions of inequality - income inequality, regional disparity, and social inequality - is crucial for poverty eradication. By creating more job opportunities, ensuring decent work conditions, promoting inclusive growth, and bridging regional disparities, India can embark on a path towards sustainable development, where poverty becomes a thing of the past.

Thursday, February 1, 2024

India's Interim Budget 2024-25: A Mix of Economic Survey and Vote on Account

Introduction
The recent interim budget for 2024-25 presented by India's Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, has sparked discussions about its effectiveness in addressing past economic challenges. While some argue that the budget focused on capacity building across various sectors, others believe it failed to tackle the issue of demand. In the following lines, we will delve into the budget's main themes and analyze its potential to drive sustainable economic growth.
 Fiscal Strategy

The interim budget 2024 tried to strike a balance between achieving sustainable economic growth and implementing specific welfare measures. Since it was presented ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the budget did not introduce any major policy changes or tax revisions. Instead, it laid out a vision for the next five years, portraying India's resurgence as it strives to become the world's third-largest economy.

Key Highlights

The budget emphasized key sectors, such as infrastructure, tourism, and housing. It increased the capital expenditure target by 11.1% to Rs 11.11 lakh crore, focusing on boosting infrastructure and job creation. Furthermore, the government introduced a scheme providing interest-free loans to states to promote tourism and allocated funds for tourism development in Lakshadweep.

The government shared that India is close to achieving its target of building 3 crore houses under the rural housing scheme. It prposef to construct an additional 2 crore houses in the next five years. Alongside these achievements, the budget highlighted the remarkable growth of Indian chess grandmasters, with the number reaching 80 compared to 20 in 2010. We don't really understand the significance of this information in budget!!!

Commitment to Welfare and Achievements

The budget emphasized the government's dedication to the welfare of women, farmers, youth, and the poor. It showcased the achievements of various schemes such as Ujjwala, PM-KISAN, PM-JAY, PM-SYM, and PM-KMY. These initiatives were designed to empower marginalized sections of society and improve their quality of life.

Economic Resilience and Reform

The interim budget also acknowledged the resilience of the Indian economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and its subsequent recovery. 

Despite the progress, challenges such as inflation, fiscal deficit, current account deficit, and unemployment still loom. The guiding principles remained to address these issues, placing importance on sound macroeconomic fundamentals, skill development, energy transition, and ongoing reforms.

Reflection and Evaluation

The budget failed to strike a balance between stimulating consumption and  investment, exports, and public expenditure, while ensuring fiscal prudence, monetary stability, and social welfare. However, the true impact of the budget will depend on the implementation of its various schemes and measures.

Conclusion

India's Interim Budget 2024 - 25 was a comprehensive document that combined elements of an economic survey and a vote on account. It charted the achievements, challenges, and and more looks like a vision of the Indian economy, showcasing a roadmap for sustainable growth in the coming years like  a NITI AYOG document. Although the budget addressed certain sectors and welfare schemes, questions remain about its effectiveness in tackling underlying issues of demand. Overall, it is now up to the government's execution and the outcomes of these measures to determine the success of the budget and its impact on the economy and the people.

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