India's per capita carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have risen from 0.39 metric tons in 1970 to a peak of 1.91 metric tons in 2022. In 2022, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial activities increased by 6.5 percent, reaching a new record high of 2.8 GtCO2. India's emissions now make up 8 percent of the global total. Despite this, the country has made significant progress in installing renewable energy capacity and ranks fourth globally in this regard. The National Electricity Plan (NEP2023) aims to further increase renewable energy capacity and restrict the establishment of new coal power plants until 2027. However, the final version of the NEP includes more extensive coal usage later in the decade compared to an earlier draft. The Climate Action Tracker rates India's climate targets and actions as "Highly Insufficient," highlighting the need for stronger targets and accelerated climate policy implementation. International support is crucial for India to align itself with a 1.5°C pathway.
India has pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2070, according to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's announcement at the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow[2][6]. While this target misses the key goal of the summit for countries to commit to reaching net-zero by 2050, India has the potential to create 287 gigatons of carbon space for the world, which amounts to almost half of the global carbon budget for an even chance at limiting warming to 1.5°C[1]. McKinsey's LoS scenario suggests that India could reduce annual emissions from a historical trajectory of 11.8 GtCO2e to 1.9 GtCO2e by 2070, a 90 percent reduction in economic emissions intensity compared with 2019. It can reach 0.4 GtCO2e by 2050 in the accelerated scenario, with the potential to get to its net-zero-by-2070 commitment through new technology developments (such as direct air capture) over the next few decades[1]. However, India's net-zero target is not yet backed by a clear plan, and it will require a balanced mix of policies to halt deforestation and increase forests[3]. Therefore, it is unclear whether India can become carbon negative by 2045.
Citations:
[1] Decarbonising India: Charting a pathway for sustainable growth - McKinsey https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/decarbonising-india-charting-a-pathway-for-sustainable-growth
[2] COP26: India PM Narendra Modi pledges net zero by 2070 - BBC News https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-59125143
[3] Understanding India's Net Zero Policies: A Primer for Journalists https://earthjournalism.net/resources/understanding-indias-net-zero-policies-a-primer-for-jou-rnalists
[4] India to push developed nations to become 'carbon negative' before 2050 -sources | Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/climate-un-india/india-to-push-developed-nations-to-become-carbon-negative-before-2050-sources-idUSL4N3BI54Y
[5] India Commits to Net-Zero Emissions by 2070 - The Diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2021/11/india-commits-to-net-zero-emissions-by-2070/
[6] The World's Top Carbon Emitters Now All Have Net Zero Pledges. Most of Them Are Too Vague - Time https://time.com/6113845/net-zero-climate-pledge-impact/
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